Castro's Health And The Future Of Cuba

Castro’s Health And What It Means To The Future Of Cuba

While most of the Western world is focused on the Middle East both in the concerns with the war in Iraq and the blood bath in Gaza strip, very little attention is being paid to what very well could be the end of an era. According to various sources, the health of Cuban president Fidel Castro is in some question. Many inside Washington believe he is in the terminal stages of cancer and probably will not see 2007. Castro gave up his position to his brother Raul shortly before he went in for surgery. Since then there have been very few sightings of him and even fewer over the last three+ months. If we are to assume that his health is in fact failing the obvious question that must arise is, what is the future of Cuba and it’s people.

Fidel Castro has out lived virtually every American president who has put a price on his head, from Kennedy to Reagan. For members of both U.S. political parties he has served as the great specter of the cold war in our own backyard. His very name for years has brought chills up the spine of Washington DC. And while the hysteria has certainly been blown out of proportion, it is not without merit. Most history analysts agree that the Cuban missile crises is the closest that either side came to escalating the war to a full blown active engagement. But, let us not forget why the situation reached such a critical stage that surely would have signal the end all life on the planet. Before the missile crises, there was the Bay Of Pigs and before that, there were no less than 30 attempts by the CIA to remove Castro from power , either by coup or by assassination. So it should come as no surprise that he formed an alliance with the Soviet Union. Any country leader in their right mind might have done the same for the self preservation of his or her country, a fact left out of most of our history books. Since he came to power, the opinion of the Cuban people towards  Castro has been between Castro supporters who feel he is the great savior who removed the western invaders from their country and those pro-Batista right wing land owners who have been looking to resume the selling of Cuba’s land to investors. Either way, the one thing that neither side can deny is the fact that he has been able to keep his country together through almost five decades of being under an embargo. Despite what is reported in North America, he is still well loved in Cuba by the vast majority of the country.

So what is next for Cuba now that it appears Castro’s health is quickly failing? The answer is really quite unclear at this point. Several months ago now George W. Bush stated that the U.S. would hasten the fall of Fidel and prevent any communist successor. The pretext for such an invasion was being sold to the American people by U.S. ambassador to the UN, John Bolton. He stated that Cuba was buying and creating weapons of mass destruction that it was selling to the Iranians. But with the recent events concerning the down fall of the neo-cons such an attack now seems unlikely. If history does in fact repeats itself here, we can assume members of the Cuban right wing who currently reside in Florida could very well be armed, trained and backed by U.S. forces in the same manner that has been the history of the U.S. dealings with South American Governments we did not like. Such a plan would allow Bush to bypass any dealings with congress altogether. 

The moment the news broke that Castro’s health was failing, the AP reported that many of the Fortune 500 have been salivating like Pavlov’s dogs. And if Iraq is any indication, than we know how much George W. Bush will act in the interest of those who line his pockets. But, this is one scenario.

It is important to remember that Raul is not Fidel and might be willing to make concessions that his older brother was unwilling to make. Chances are that he will not be able to hold the country together over the long run like the elder Castro managed to do.

Until next time.     

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